Breaking News: Clinton and Democrats Pay for False Dossier

The Trump-Russia collusion story is based on a secret paper which the Washington Post, a Clinton loving newspaper, now says was paid by Clinton and the Democrats. No doubt that 'sunlight disinfects'. As the corruption of the left is exposed to the light of truth, more and more of their deceit and lies will evaporate.

The Clinton's Crime Syndicate under scrutiny

Tax Rhetoric Hides Real Issue

Media Noise on Tax Reform

Talk about tax reform is everywhere in the news these days. The media tells us that the proposed changes are bad for us. Understandably, those proposing the changes disagree. So what does all the noise mean to you and your business?

The problem with the subject of taxation is that it poses special difficulties to those attempting to forecast outcomes. It's possible for diametrically opposed tax plans to promise the same positive outcome, for example. Therefore, the subject lends itself to manipulation by unethical politicians and news people alike. The natural complexity also serves to hide what's really important to all of us. So, let's understand the effects of tax changes. Then, let's consider the real threat to the wellbeing of our nation; a subject no one is talking about.

To understand why tax reform outcomes are so difficult to interpret we need to look at how complex systems work. Complex systems act in a seemingly random fashion as participants within the system change their behavior in response to other participants.

Let me explain with the following scenario. Assume that we get together a thousand of the smartest PhD's in the country. We'll call them the Federal Reserve or FED for short.

Federal Reserve Board, 1917

This FED has the responsibility to ensure a better economic future for all of us. The FED will study the economic market; a flexible group of players following their self interest. Then, when it sees trouble ahead, the FED will intervene to prevent any negative outcomes. Ironically, the FED will thus become the largest player in the system.

This game really begun in December of 1913. So far, the super smart people at the FED have never anticipated a single economic downturn. In fact, the FED now accepts that they are 'data dependant'; they admit to being myopic. Without visibility past their nose, they utterly 'depend' on where 'data' is right now. To make matters more confusing, other players follow every action by the FED as a sign of what's to come. It's a real case of the blind leading the blind.

At times, complex systems follow a single general direction. For example, we know that more people in a market will make the number of transactions grow. While the relationship between number of players and number of transactions is not precise, the general correlation is positive. As population has continued to grow, the number of transactions has done the same in what looks like limitless duration.  

Complex System

But then there are times when these systems periodically return to their base or mean. Market risk is a good example. The risk faced by market players alters direction because it can't continue to increase or decrease indefinitely.

The problem with complex systems is that they represent the total combination of many of these two types of movements. At times, linear movements dominate only to suddenly give in to reversion to the mean.

Think about it. It's even possible for the same participants to act differently when faced with the same circumstances. Their actions could be altered by their memory of recent success or failure, for example.

All these facts make it impossible to establish rigid expectations. So don't be surprised when the smartest scientist can't guess the path of a hurricane a few days before it makes land or when the Federal Reserve makes a catastrophic mistake with the economy. Both, the economy and the weather are complex systems. Likewise, do you really expect the TV host to be able to correctly determine what will happen after a new tax structure is implemented? No chance.

Here, please pardon the fact that I took way too long to elaborate my point; I really wanted to make it very clear. News people are as clueless as any of us. Don't waste your time listening to their opinion disguised as a news fact. For a more productive outcome, read a fiction novel instead.

Still, the media will try to convince you. And since most of the media has a left bias, they'll generally argue that paying more taxes and a bigger government are better.

Government Skeptics

Now that if you see big government with skepticism, don't distress. You are not alone. In fact, you are in great company. Our nation's forefathers shared the same skepticism. This is why our constitution was written to limit government power.

Our constitution has served us well for close to 230 years; resulting in the most successful nation in history. Our system is in fact so great that countries all around the world voluntarily adopt many of its characteristics. Subsequently, billions of people have left poverty behind.

Yes, before Europeans started to brag about their young and relatively untested socialist system of big government and heavy taxation, they needed our help rebuilding after their past mistakes. So, when the left leaning media tries to tell you that European's pay more taxes and manage to live better than we do, remember that their opinion isn't so correct.

Look at Holland. To get all the extra goodies dished out by their government, the land of public sex displays has severely mortgaged their future. To revert path, Holland will have to cut national expenditures by 10% and then endure 10 years of doubling tax rates to 100%. Their debt is so humongous that it can only be solved with 10 years of complete slavery to the government. Now you see why their politicians are so happy. There is more than cannabis behind their smirk.

Historic Tax Rates

Another strong argument the media exploits to defend their position is that higher post-WWII taxes resulted in a better economy for the US. Here again, they are missing about half of the complex system's picture. Yes, the US had tremendously high taxes in paper after WWII. But no, people didn't actually pay them.

Does anyone recall that business schools were nonexistent until much after the big war? Before universities found a way to educate future business leaders most CEO's were attorneys. Back then, being a lawyer was essential for guiding a company around government regulation.

Tax rates down; tax revenue up.

When looking at government tax receipts on a per capita basis and adjusted to inflation, it's sad to see that we pay much higher taxes today than we did after WWII despite having a lower rate. The chart clearly shows how tax rates have gone down while tax collections have gone up.

Reagan found that tax evasion eased when taxes were seen as reasonable. The inverse of this fact is why Greece collects no taxes at all. When taxes are unbelievably high, people will do anything not to pay.

In the economic complex system, players will be more willing to increase their activity in an environment of fair taxation. Then, higher player activity will conceivably result in tax receipts sufficient enough to compensate for the loss by rate reductions. This is when politicians use the term "revenue neutral". Nonetheless, don't believe them when they use it. Both sides can easily claim revenue neutrality from clearly opposing plans.

Yet, tax receipts won't be enough for our present government expenditures. Right now, our government borrows an additional 48 cents for every dollar in taxes we pay them. It's clear we can't afford our present government. We would need to cut government spending by 32%¹ to get back to break even. This will do nothing about paying off our debt. We would simply stop the bleeding.

US Total Budget, 2016

Look at the pie chart here and tell me what part of government would you cut to get the 32% reduction? I bet you can't. We are accustomed to the good stuff even when clearly insolvent.

Then, to compound our challenges, we spend the equivalent to little less than half of our massive military budget on interest payments alone. We are buried under a pile of debt.

Do you want to experience real fear? Consider the fact that our debt pays close to zero percent in interests. Think of it, if interest rates go to their 4% long term average, we will be spending double the current military budget on interests alone.

Let me make my opinion clear. Talking about taxes is important. But the real conversation to have is about debt. We are broke. We have to tighten the belt and figure how to get us back to balance sheet health. We can argue the best way to solve it. But there is no escaping the subject. Your business' future and that of your family are at risk. Let's redirect the conversation as soon as possible.

¹ Take one dollar plus 48 cents. Then calculate it's inverse. Then subtract 1 to come up with the 32 cents or 32% needed in lower government expenditures to bring us back to a point where we are not borrowing any more money.

Sound Management after Music Paradigm

You're coaching one of your managers, but all you get is the 'deer in the headlights' look. You try to be clear. Your manager's actions and body language around the office are sending a conflicting messages to the team. The unintended result is that team's productivity and focus is suffering.
Frustratingly, your point isn't getting through. Your manager blames the team for all shortfalls. There's no understanding that the problem is managerial in nature. You're even told that performance isn't "so bad".
But you know better. You know the difference. You know what's missing in their performance.
Why hasn't anyone developed a tool to solve your problem? You believe in coaching your team to help them reach higher levels of effectiveness. You know that everybody wins wherever there's exceptional productivity. So, having a way to clearly show what happens to your team's performance when management is executed exceptionally well would be fantastic indeed. But how to make it tactile enough so that anyone can 'touch and feel' the difference?
Well, your cry has been heard.
There is a fantastic tool for leaders who want to take their team beyond common daily platitudes and towards a clear understanding of those special aspects that cause maximum performance out of professional teams.
But be ready to be surprised because the solution to your challenge is not the usual rigid presentation where a very smart person talks to your team while they vigorously attempt to take notes. No. The right way to teach your all stars is through music. Yes, you read it right. Music!
Enter Music Paradigm; the brainchild of Maestro Roger Nierenberg.

Maestro Roger Nierenberg

With a world class resume, Maestro Nierenberg has recorded with the London Philharmonic and conducted at both the Prague Spring Festival and the Beijing Festival. He has guest-conducted the National Symphony, the Opera Theatre of Saint Louis, the Detroit Symphony, the Saint Louis Symphony, the Baltimore Symphony, the Indianapolis Symphony, the San Diego Symphony and many other great American orchestras. Master Nierenberg  also had long, successful tenures as Music Director of both the Stamford Symphony in Connecticut and the Jacksonville Symphony in Florida.
One day, Maestro Nierenberg realized that orchestra directors like himself faced the same challenges as leaders who believe in hiring the best employees available. While their teams perform fine under most circumstances, the real magic only happens when management is exceptionally executed. So the idea was born to create an immersive demonstration beyond everybody's wildest dreams.
Picture this: you take your management team to an event where they will listen to the most beautiful music in the world. Moreover, they'll get a rare peek at what happens behind the scenes.
Your managers will seat side by side with professionals who have such strong commitment to their trade that they literally gave up thousands of hours of fun for a chance to improve their skill.

Managerial insight during Music Paradigm

We are sure to think that people of such high commitment do not need management. It's to be expected. So, imagine how insightful it is when Maestro Nierenberg proves to you that his musicians are incredible by themselves but even better when properly managed. Music Paradigm will show you how communication can become both, immediate and effective, as long as we pay attention to others. He'll even reveal that your team knows more about your managerial faults than you dare to accept.
Maestro Nierenberg will demonstrate the value of hiring the very best. Even without formal, top-down leadership, real professionals manage in a 360 degree way that would make author John Maxwell proud.
Aside from delivering an enchanting musical experience Maestro Nierenberg obliterates misguided preconceptions on what makes a remarkable manager. The experience is fantastic at so many levels.

There's only one Music Paradigm

As a leader, I have faced many challenges over the years. Being perpetually aware of the void in resources needed, I always keep an eye out for better ways to solve old problems. Thankfully, I had the luxury of witnessing Maestro Nierenberg give a group of promising managers the kind of insight unavailable anywhere else. And, since their gracious invitation allowed me to bring my wife, we also experienced a memorable musical presentation. Without fear of being hyperbolic, I can tell you that Music Paradigm is as special as a visit to Machu Picchu on a wonderfully sunny day. I learned so much while admiring incredible beauty. What are you waiting for? Call Music Paradigm today to schedule the same experience for your team. There is only one Machu Picchu just like there is only one Music Paradigm.

Contact Information:
The Music Paradigm
http://www.musicparadigm.com/
862-849-2429
info@musicparadigm.com

Black Friday Boom

Could this coming Friday be our economy's Black Friday? No, not Thanksgiving's Black Friday when all companies finally make a profit for the year. 

S&P Index Futures show a peak being formed

Instead, is this Friday going to become the top of the equities and bond bubbles artificially created by the Federal Reserve?
Surely I am not talking about bubbles that made things better for all of us. The recent highs in the equities market have demonstrated that while Wall Street can be joyfully celebrating, 'main street' can continue to suffer all along from a post-recessionary hangover.
During Obama's term, the cost of money for large organizations went so low that many CEO's decided to mortgage their company's future by padding their own bank accounts with lots of options on shares bought back from the market on borrowed money.

Stock Buybacks

This was a clear misallocation of resources; of the kind that central governments often incentivize. The cheap money allowed CEO's to buy back shares, thus improving the per share profit performance. This in turn made CEO's look so good that their job-well-done was rewarded with stock options. In a way, cheap Fed money allowed a transfer of wealth from investors to CEO's. Let's also remember that in a few years, all the current CEO's will be gone and not held to account any more. Yet, all company loans will have to be repaid with the future profits that would otherwise go to investors. You got to love the way the game is played. The stock market's optimistic booming picture disproportionally benefits company leaders more than any other stakeholder group.
Meanwhile, Obama also brought us a drying of the otherwise available capital that was needed for small business growth. For eight years, the cost of borrowing sky rocketed for small businesses regardless of where the Fed set their rates. But how could this happen? Well, it all resulted of the so-called economic stimulus by the Fed.
When the government bought so many of their own bonds, through transactions between the Fed and Treasury, most low risk assets were drained out of the market. This pressed low risk-tolerance lenders to compete for higher risk corporate bonds. The greater number of lenders competing for the same number of bonds pushed prices (interests) down. At the same time, this left lender portfolios with a higher risk profile than would normally be preferred. So, they then had to increase the price (interest) for small business loans to bring their risk profile back into shape. In a nutshell, next time the government tells you they are trying to help you, the small business owner, run for the exits. No matter how many PhD's work at our central bank, their actions will continue to result in big failures similar to those from Mao Tse Tung's great leap forward where 45 million people died after their government tried to help them.

Corporate Bond Cycle

For thirty years, the Fed has pushed interests lower and lower. Always with the goal of 'helping' the economy. Today, we are at the very end of one of those cycles that reverses about every 30 years. But whether the Fed actually prices interest rates higher or not, let's remember that bond prices are no more than a gauge of trust. If capital holders trust the environment, money flows into markets. When trust is lost, prices of bonds go sky high and capital drains out of markets. Interestingly, the same trust is what holds the price of stocks high. So, it is not unreasonable to think that we could face a pivotal change in the cost of money and a pivotal change on the cost of stocks, both at the same time. While bond charts show no more signs of peaking other than their cycle's maturity, equity markets are screaming 'top" like never before.

Elliot Wave Analysis of S&P 500

First, there is the fact that most large traders set price levels using the same technical analysis that shows that we are at a point where several longterm Fibonacci studies converge as tops.
Second, many more large traders look at what is called 'Elliot Wave' which is now calling for an end of an eight year move.
Finally, it's October. You know, all bad things in the stock market happen in October.
So, whether the bond and equity tops happen this Friday or the next, it seems clear that the difference is academic at best. The end of the current run seems upon us.
But, is it possible that I could be wrong; after all, there have been many calls for the top in recent years? Well, yes. I could be wrong.
Still, this week's relentless push upwards has the characteristic price action of a top. This week's price movement seems to be creating a Doji, a well known top formation used by 'Japanese Candle Sticks' chart readers. Yes, I know it all sounds funny and surreal. Still, these people make millions of dollars every year from looking at these studies that go back centuries.

In any case, I believe that, as a leader, one must be aware of any potential change in market sentiment. If a recession starts this month, it would last at least a year and a half. During such time, loans would be called back everywhere as lenders will try to reduce their risk profile. Capital will probably dry up. In extreme cases even trust between banks could create international commerce seizures due to an absence of international letters of credit. For a single day during the last recession, this same picture became a reality and all global commerce almost came to a halt. The risks are simply too high to ignore.
You have been forewarned. Let's hope I am wrong.